Methodology

Evaluating Megatons to Megawatts

Methodological Notes 

Preamble

Megatons to Megawatts (M2M) was a program through which highly enriched uranium from dismantled Soviet nuclear weapons was converted into fuel for civilian energy production in the United States. It stands as one of the most successful examples of nuclear disarmament and peaceful scientific cooperation between former adversaries, with major security, economic, and environmental implications.

Given the program’s scale, complexity, and lasting impact, evaluating M2M requires a multidisciplinary, multigenerational, and long-term effort. No single field can fully capture its significance; security, diplomacy, technical innovation, economics, and environmental science must all be brought together. The evaluation must also be multigenerational to integrate both firsthand experience and new critical perspectives. And it must unfold over time—not in a few days—because understanding a project of this magnitude demands sustained reflection, collaborative learning, and cumulative research. 

Why

• It is an interesting case.
• It is proper to investigate actual cases.
• Learning could inform new choices.
• Some aspects (especially the environmental ones) have not been studied sufficiently.
• M2M is not well-known.
• It could provide the basis for further comparative research.
   

How

• Acknowledgement of all that has been written and produced already
• Direct involvement of the largest network of actors who had direct experience of M2M
• Direct involvement of the largest network of researchers who studied and wrote about M2M
• The evaluation must be interdisciplinary
• Three working seminars:
  • One - Setting the Conditions - Monday, June 16, 2025
  • Two - Actualizing M2M - Monday, June 15, 2026
  • Three - The Results of M2M - Monday, June 14, 2027
• Structured Interviews of M2M protagonists
• Refinement of the CNDSI Matrix (the overarching interpretative framework)
  • Security
    • Defence/Military
    • Intelligence
    • Policy
    • Diplomacy
  • Operations
    • Agency and identity of M2M and its actors/components
    • Theoretical knowledge
    • Precedents
    • Technical solutions
    • Maintenance
    • Verification
  • Economics
    • Overall economic flow of M2M
    • Revenues and losses of M2M
    • Larger Systems revenues and losses
  • Environment
    • Was the environment ever even an issue that was discussed?
    • Environmental status quo
    • Evaluation environmental impact
• CNDSI Briefs and papers
  • Briefs are “institutional” (contributions are acknowledged if requested)
  • Papers are authored and fully attributed 
     

Relational Responsibility

CNDSI tries to acknowledge the contact and contributions of interlocutors. The list of individuals and institutions that have been contacted and engaged will be maintained as updated as possible.

Cumulative Specificity

The HEU Deal/M2M program was extremely creative and complex. Multiple actors were involved, and multiple fields of knowledge and enterprises were deployed. CNDSI seeks to describe, explain, verify, and evaluate processes, from general hypotheses to specific details. It uses diverse, verified, and verifiable sources while seeking convincing explanations.

Effective Narrative

The articulate and in-depth understanding of the HEU Deal/M2M program is relevant to five self-constituted domains: 

• academia
• private sector
• government
• international organizations
• civil society

CNDSI houses the “Nuclear Disarmament and Sustainability Working Group,” an informal network of actors committed to understanding, verifying, and using relevant knowledge at the intersection of nuclear disarmament, clean energy production, and sustainability. The NDS-WG plans on meeting in hybrid form on the third Monday of every month from 10:00 AM to 12 PM. Participation is by invitation only, free of charge, and voluntary. Chatham House rules are respected. For more information, please contact [email protected]